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Hampton University
Wigwam Building
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Hampton, VA 23668

Phone: 757.727.5426
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A Survey of 802 Likely Voters - Virginia, Statewide - November 2-6, 2016

With only one day left before the 2016 Presidential Election, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a four point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to a poll released today by the Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP).

The poll was conducted from November 2-6, 2016 and included 802 live interviews of likely voters in Virginia who are registered to vote and said they are likely to vote in this presidential election.

The Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine has opened up a 4-point lead to capture 45% of respondents who were asked "for whom would you vote" if the election were held today. The Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence received 41% in this poll that wrapped up Sunday (November 6). This is a reversal of fortune from the last CPP poll for Trump; however, a great number of likely Virginia voters remaining undecided (14%), down only 1% since the last Center for Public Policy poll. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4% for the full sample which was attained from the registered voter list for Virginia.

Q4. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote:

The Democratic ticket of
Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine
45%
The Republican ticket of
Donald Trump & Mike Pence
41%
Don’t Know/Refused 14%
TOTAL 100%

As people gear up to head to the polls on Election Tuesday, 85% of likely Virginia voters remain confident in the integrity of the voting process and system in the state of Virginia, an increase of three points from just two weeks ago.

Q15a. How confident are you in the integrity of the voting process and system in the Commonwealth of Virginia?

Interviews Percentages
Very Confident 365 36%
Somewhat Confident 314 49%
Not very confident 85 11%
Not at all Confident 25 3%
Don't Know/Refused 13 2%
TOTAL 802 100%

While confidence remains high about the voting process, both candidates will head into Election Day with high unfavorable ratings from Virginia's likely voters. The high unfavorable numbers have been consistent for both candidates throughout the election cycle. In this last CPP November poll before the general election, 55% hold an unfavorable view of Clinton, while 54% view Trump unfavorably.

Q6.& Q7. Do you have an… Unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of:

February 2016 July 2016 August 2016 Sept/October 2016 October 2016 November 2016
Hillary Clinton (D) 50% 58% 54% 54% 57% 55%
Donald Trump (R) 61% 53% 55% 55% 54% 54%

Since the news about the FBI reopening an investigation into Clinton's email had an effect on the last CPP poll, we asked respondents if the release of that news impacted his or her voting decision and if it made it more likely to vote for one candidate over the other. While 65% said the news has not impacted their voting decision either way, 29% said it made them more likely to vote for Trump. Only 4% stated the news made them more likely to vote for Clinton.

Q15c. Would you say that what you have heard, read or seen about this investigation into Clinton’s email servers has made you:

More likely to vote for Clinton 4%
More likely to vote for Trump 29%
Has it not impacted your
voting decision Either way
65%
Don’t Know/Refused 1%
TOTAL 99%

Voters will decide on the next President of the United States on Tuesday, November 8th, wrapping up a memorable and historic 2016 Presidential Election season.

Methodology:

The statewide survey was conducted by a professional call center (SSRS- Social Science Research Solutions) for the Hampton University Center for Public Policy under the general direction of Kelly Harvey-Viney, J.D.

Live interviews were conducted by telephone from November 2-6, 2016. SSRS fielded a survey of likely voters in Virginia (persons living in the State who are registered to vote and said they are almost certain or very likely to vote in the next election). The sample was attained from the registered voter list for Virginia.

These data were weighted to reflect the voter registration population of Virginia ages 18 years of age and older. This weighting combined with rounding is responsible for percentages not always equaling exactly 100%; this phenomenon is most obvious in the allocation by county as the very large number of response categories provided a multitude of opportunities for rounding and resulted in totals of significantly less than 100% (92%) overall.

The weighting process takes into account the disproportionate probabilities of household and respondent selection due to the number of landlines or cellphones answered by respondents and their households.

Following application of the above weights, the sample is post-stratified and balanced by key demographics such as age, race, sex, education, marital status, and party affiliation.

The sample is also weighted to reflect the distribution of phone usage in Virginia, meaning the proportion of those who are cell phone only, landline only, and mixed users. A total of 802 interviews were conducted between November 2 and November 6, 2016; 401 using Landline sample and 401 using Cell sample. This topline is provided by SSRS.

The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4% for the full sample.