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Survey of 768 Democratic Registered Voters - Virginia Statewide - Democratic Presidential Primary Poll - March 2020

Voters take to the polls Tuesday in Virginia to vote on Super Tuesday with thirteen other states. With 99 super delegates, the Virginia primary may help decide who will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

In the pack of remaining Democratic candidates, former Vice-President Joe Biden is the candidate Virginians think can beat President Donald Trump in the race for the White House in the fall. Many voters believe that the Democratic Party nominee should be someone who can beat Donald Trump, and healthcare remains the most important issue Virginians want the next president to tackle is healthcare.

The survey field period was from February 25- 28, 2020.

Participation, the Election Matchups & Favorability

The Center for Public Policy asked those who participated if they plan to vote, already voted or do not plan to vote in the Virginia Presidential primary and 75% say they plan to vote, while 4% already voted, and 21% responded that they don't plan to vote.

The survey of 768 registered voters were asked, "If the general election for president were being held today… for whom would you vote?"

Former Vice-President Joe Biden beats his contenders by a slim margin (45%) ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (44%) and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (43%) according to the latest Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) poll. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (42%), former South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg (41%) and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobachar (39%) round out the list (see Topline for more details).

Q. If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] for whom would you vote?

Dem. v. Donald Trump
Joe Biden 45% 38%
Bernie Sanders 44% 39%
Michael Bloomberg 43% 38%
Elizabeth Warren 42% 40%
Pete Buttigieg 41% 38%
Amy Klobuchar 39% 37%

The margin of error is +/- 3.8% for the full sample. For more details and the complete survey and Topline results, please go to www.hamptonu.edu/CPP/

Despite dropping out of the race, Pete Buttigieg has remarkably high favorability numbers in Virginia and is in a statistical tie with Joe Biden. When asked their general impression of each candidate running for president, Biden and Buttigieg each garnered a 46% favorable rating ahead of Sanders (44%), Warren (41%), Bloomberg (39%) and Klobuchar (37%) who also ended her bid for the presidency since this poll was conducted.

Q4. Please tell me your general impression of each candidate running for president.

Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion/ Never
Heard of This Person
Skipped TOTAL
Joe Biden 46% 49% 5% 0% 100
Pete Buttigieg 46% 39% 15% 0% 100
Bernie Sanders 44% 51% 5% 0% 100
Elizabeth Warren 41% 49% 9% 1% 100
Amy Klobuchar 37% 40% 22% 1% 100
Michael Bloomberg 37% 55% 8% 0% 100
 
Donald Trump 39% 58% 2% 1% 100

President Trump has 39% favorable ratings and when asked, nearly 60% believe he will be re-elected in November.

Q7. As of right now, what do you think the chances are that Donald Trump gets re-elected in November... will he:

Percent
Get re-elected 59%
Lose to the Democrat 22%
Don’t Know 19%
TOTAL 100

However, of those who remarked that they would be participating in the primary elections in Virginia, 31% said it was important personally that "the Democratic Party nominates a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump." While 20% want the Democratic Party to nominate a presidential candidate who shares [their] positions on major issues (see Topline results for more details).

Q8. Which is more important to you personally?

Percent
That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump 31%
That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate who shares your positions on major issues 20%
Did not answer 48%
TOTAL 100

Important Issues

Healthcare is the most important issue of those surveyed (35%) and believe it should be the top priority of the next President of the United States, no matter who it is. Improving the economy came in second (24%) with Immigration (16%), climate change (13%), education (7%) and gun policy (5%) completing the list.

Q9. Please tell me which one issue on this list should be the top priority of the next President of the United States, no matter who it is:

Percent
Healthcare 35%
Improve the Economy 24%
Immigration 16%
Climate Change 13%
Education 7%
Gun Policy 5%
TOTAL 100

The Presidential Election is November 3, 2020.

Methodology

The statewide survey of registered voters in Virginia was conducted by NORC (National Opinion Research Center) for the Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) under the general direction of Kelly Harvey Viney, J.D. – Director. NORC fielded a survey of registered voters in Virginia. The sample was attained from registered voters identified in the NORC AmeriSpeak probability panel as well as in the Dynata Opt-in panel for Virginia. These data were weighted to reflect the voter registration population of Virginians ages 18 years of age and older based on the 2018 Virginia CPS, voter supplement. The two samples were combined using NORC's TrueNorth procedure, which involves developing weighted estimates in each sample and then utilizing a small area estimation procedure to model key attitudinal metrics from the probability panel onto the non-probability panel sample.

Following application of the above calibration procedure, the sample is post-stratified and balanced by key demographics such as age, race, sex, education, marital status, and region of Virginia.

The survey field period was from February 25- 28, 2020.

The margin of error is +/- 3.8% for the full sample. For more details and the complete survey and Topline results, please go to www.hamptonu.edu/CPP/

NOTE - *Since this poll was in the field, the CPP acknowledges two of the candidates included in this poll have since ended their bid for the presidency.